---
title: "A Winner in Every Category"
description: "Public software multiples sit at historic lows, yet in each category one business trades at a meaningful premium: CrowdStrike at 3.9x its Security median, Cloudflare at 3.4x Infrastructure, Shopify at 8.1x Commerce. Each has bulldozed an AI focused path."
categories: ["SaaS","public markets"]
keywords: ["SaaS multiples","Cloudflare","CrowdStrike","Shopify","Figma","growth premium","AI SaaS"]
ai_summary: "Despite historic lows in public software multiples, each category has one name at a large premium to its peers: CrowdStrike 3.9x its Security median, Cloudflare 3.4x Infrastructure, Shopify 8.1x Commerce. Most disclose no AI revenue. Since 2021 the ceiling fell from 100x to 34x \u0026 only eleven names clear 10x."
date: 2026-08-11
lastmod: 2026-08-11
canonical_url: https://www.tomtunguz.com/a-winner-in-every-category/
author: "Tomasz Tunguz"
---


The collapse in SaaS has depressed multiples. But in nearly every category, a leader thrives.

{{< email_image src="kmzv4mppcblh6cmibhj9" alt="Category medians hide 30x spreads inside Infrastructure and Security" width="540" height="311" >}}

CrowdStrike trades at 3.9x the security median ; Cloudflare at 3.4x infrastructure ; & Shopify at 8.1x Commerce median.

Each of them has carved out an AI focused path.

{{< email_image src="qwho0ko2w1ri0roofrqd" alt="Top name's multiple as a ratio of its category median, versus the 4.4x 2021 drawdown" width="540" height="286" >}}

**CrowdStrike** at 34.4x forward revenue. Palo Alto trades at 22x. Every AI agent an enterprise deploys is a new endpoint to defend, & defending it requires the trillion security events a day CrowdStrike's Threat Graph already correlates [^2].

**Cloudflare** at 32.6x. The nearest peer, Snowflake, trades at 17.5x. More than half the traffic crossing its network is no longer human [^3], so every agent that reaches a customer becomes a request Cloudflare routes, inspects & eventually bills for.

**Shopify** at 11.3x. Its Commerce peers trade at a 1.4x median. Shopping agents send orders that convert new buyers at twice the rate of other channels, & because they write straight into Shopify, that demand lands at the take rate Shopify already charges [^4].

**Samsara** at 10.8x. Vertical SaaS's median is 4.0x. The 25 trillion data points a year crossing its platform, dashcam imagery & maintenance workflows that, as Sanjit Biswas put it, aren't found on the Internet [^5], are the training data no foundation model can buy.

**ServiceNow** at 7.4x. The Productivity & Collaboration median is 3.4x, & Atlassian trades at 5.1x. Enterprises buying agents need somewhere to govern them, which is why ServiceNow's AI book crossed $1b in annual contract value & is targeted at 30% of total ACV by 2030 [^6].

**Figma** at 6.7x. GitLab, the only other Developer & Design name here, trades at 4.6x. As AI commoditizes the code, judgment about what to build becomes the scarce input, & more than 80% of Figma's customers above $10k in ARR now consume AI credits weekly [^7].

**Twilio** at 5.6x. RingCentral in Communications trades at 2.4x. Voice agents have to reach humans over someone's network, & that pull accelerated Twilio's voice revenue past 20% for a sixth consecutive quarter [^8].

**Salesforce** at 4.0x. The Marketing & Sales median is 2.3x. Agents are only as useful as the customer record they act on, which is how Agentforce reached $1.2b ARR & grew 205%, more than half of it sold back into the installed base [^9].

None of these are the fastest-growing name in their category. CrowdStrike grows 23% & trades at 34.4x, while Rubrik grows 46% in the same category & trades at 10.4x. Salesforce grows 11%, slower than almost everyone.

But the market believes in the AI story, the harness, the inference revenue, the durability.

{{< email_image src="dfsxbfbkkr2fw85rgilf" alt="Every category except Commerce has rallied in the last quarter" width="540" height="328" >}}

Also violating the narrative : nearly every category in public software rallied last quarter, & in Security & Developer & Design every name gained.

{{< email_image src="kemm8cfjv5xzo7e4j7zf" alt="SaaS multiples hit a new low in March 2026, then bounced 33% in five months" width="540" height="319" >}}

Since 2021, the ceiling has fallen from 100x [^1] to 34x, & only eleven names now clear 10x. But the top of the market is rosying.

See that little elbow at the very bottom right?

[^1]: https://tomtunguz.com/100x-arr/

[^2]: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/03/03/crowdstrike-crwd-q4-2026-earnings-transcript/

[^3]: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/07/more-than-half-of-cloudflares-network-traffic-is-n/

[^4]: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/05/shopify-shop-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/

[^5]: https://s29.q4cdn.com/853855404/files/doc_financials/2026/q4/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT_-Samsara-Inc-IOT-US-Q4-2026-Earnings-Call-5-March-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf

[^6]: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/servicenow-reports-second-quarter-2026-201000482.html

[^7]: https://s206.q4cdn.com/973901332/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/Figma-Q2-26-Prepared-Remarks.pdf

[^8]: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/30/twilio-twlo-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/

[^9]: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001108524/000110852426000125/crm-q1fy27xexhibit991.htm