---
title: "AI at Discount"
description: "Anthropic trades at 17x EV/NTM on 165% growth, a 65% discount to Palantir. Capital intensity, profitability uncertainty \u0026 growth volatility explain the gap."
categories: ["AI","infrastructure"]
keywords: ["Anthropic valuation","revenue multiple","AI valuation discount","capital intensity","growth volatility"]
ai_summary: "Anthropic trades at 17x EV/NTM on 165% growth, a 65% discount to Palantir. Capital intensity, profitability uncertainty \u0026 growth volatility explain the gap."
date: 2026-05-07
lastmod: 2026-07-30
canonical_url: https://www.tomtunguz.com/ai-at-discount/
author: "Tomasz Tunguz"
---


Anthropic grew from $1B to $30B in 15 months. So why does it trade at a discount to public comparables?

High-growth companies trade on forward (NTM) revenue. Anthropic's $30B run rate implies $20B in actual TTM revenue. If they exit 2026 at an $80B run rate[^1], we can estimate NTM revenue of around $50B. The EV/NTM multiple is 17x.

{{< email_image src="hxq277c4vc5z4axyvdux" alt="SaaS Revenue Multiple vs Growth showing Anthropic at 17x EV/NTM with 165% growth" width="540" height="304" >}}

Anthropic commands a 65% discount to Palantir while growing nearly 3x faster. Four factors explain the gap.

| Company    | Revenue Growth (NTM) | EV/NTM |
| :--------- | -------------------: | -----: |
| Anthropic  |                 165% |    17x |
| Palantir   |                  62% |    49x |
| Cloudflare |                  29% |    23x |

**Capital intensity.** Anthropic has raised $15B+ and will need more. The xAI Colossus GPU deal alone will cost $6.2B annually at current market rates[^2].

**Profitability uncertainty.** Revenue multiples assume future profitability. GPUs account for 60-65% of AI data center capex[^3]. Anthropic could be growing into a high-margin software business or a capital-intensive utility. The market doesn't know yet.

**Growth volatility.** In March & April, Anthropic's revenue exploded. Will that growth continue? Public markets prefer predictable growth curves they can underwrite.

**Exogenous political risk.** AI regulation is in flux. Export controls, compute caps, safety requirements : any of these could reshape the competitive landscape overnight.

The discount isn't irrational : it prices uncertainty in the fastest growing & quickest changing market.

[^1]: The $80B run rate is an estimate used to derive the NTM multiple.

[^2]: Using Ornn's Compute Price Index spot rates : (150k H200s × $2.64) + (50k × $4.13) + (20k × $5.29) = $708k/hr, or $6.2B annually.

[^3]: Goldman Sachs estimates GPUs and IT equipment account for 60-65% of hyperscaler AI data center capital expenditure.