---
title: "AI Harness' ARR Multiples"
description: "Harvey, Legora \u0026 Sierra each announced crossing $100m in ARR within nine months of each other. The market priced them at 50x, 56x \u0026 100x."
categories: ["AI","SaaS","venture capital"]
keywords: ["ARR multiple","AI valuation","Harvey Legora Sierra","100m ARR","revenue multiple"]
ai_summary: "Three AI companies crossed $100m ARR within nine months \u0026 were valued at 50x, 56x \u0026 100x revenue. Growth rate does not explain the gap: the fastest grower priced near the bottom. The premium tracks category position instead."
date: 2026-08-09
lastmod: 2026-08-10
canonical_url: https://www.tomtunguz.com/ai-harness-arr-multiples/
author: "Tomasz Tunguz"
---


How does the market value an AI harness?

We now have enough data points to draw some initial conclusions. Harvey, Legora & Sierra each announced crossing $100m in annual recurring revenue within nine months of each other, & Ramp & Decagon bracket them at $1.4b & $35m.[^1]

The answer varies between 25-125x current ARR at scale, with multiples increasing recently still further.

{{< email_image src="uetsxogcas5xx8bpqlcf" alt="Post-money valuation against ARR on log scales for five companies, with dashed lines marking constant multiples from 10x to 200x & each company's rounds connected in sequence" width="540" height="334" >}}

These are among the fastest growing businesses at scale. The dashed lines above show multiple bands ; amazingly, each company seems to trade within just one or two bands, despite significant growth in ARR.[^2] Typically, multiples compress with scale.

{{< email_image src="ok8jrwzhhmoyqqyucaaf" alt="Valuation divided by ARR from December 2024 to June 2026 for Ramp, Harvey, Legora, Sierra & Decagon, with multiples marking back up in 2026 & Harvey the exception" width="540" height="326" >}}

In January of 2026, we can see the acceleration of multiples for Legora, Sierra, & Ramp. Some of this may be due to sustained acceleration (Databricks' is another example of this) ; another component, a more favorable fundraising market.

In 2021, I wrote about the 100x ARR multiple,[^3] a premium valuation for private startups & public companies. Five years later, we're back at those levels, but the growth underneath is about 3x faster.

[^1]: Harvey announced crossing $100m on 4 August 2025, with CEO Winston Weinberg quoted in CNBC. Sierra published "Sierra hits $100m ARR milestone in 7 quarters" on 21 November 2025. Legora announced passing $100m in its newsroom on 2 April 2026. Valuations are post-money from the round preceding each milestone: Harvey's $5b Series E on 23 June 2025, Sierra's $10b round in September 2025 & Legora's $5.6b Series D including its April 2026 extension. Reported revenue at the time each round priced was roughly $75m for Harvey, per TechCrunch, & undisclosed for Sierra, whose last figure before the milestone was $26m at the end of 2024. Growth rates are annualized from each company's prior disclosed revenue figure. None of these companies is audited & all are private. The time series adds Ramp & Decagon. Ramp's revenue includes interchange earned on customer card spend rather than pure contracted subscription, so its multiple is better read against fintech comparables. Decagon has not disclosed revenue since late 2024, so its 129x divides a January 2026 round by an October 2025 estimate & should be treated as an upper bound rather than a print.

[^2]: The revenue figures behind both charts combine company statements with public extrapolations, so there is meaningful error in these estimates. Nine of the fifteen observations come from a company announcement or a founder post ; the rest are third-party estimates filling the gaps between disclosures. Sub-$100m figures are estimates in every case. Treat the direction of each line as the finding rather than the precise level.

[^3]: [The 100x ARR Multiple](https://tomtunguz.com/100x-arr/), November 4, 2021.