---
title: "How Much Should You Expect Your Startup to Slow in 2022? About 21%."
description: "Learn how cloud infrastructure growth rates declined 21% in 2022, with data-driven insights to help startup founders adjust growth forecasts and planning."
categories: ["fundraising","financials","startups"]
keywords: ["Theory Ventures","Tomasz Tunguz","venture capital","startup growth rates","cloud infrastructure","AWS","GCP","Microsoft Azure","financial forecasting"]
ai_summary: "Explore the 21% decline in startup growth rates in 2022 and its implications for financial forecasting."
date: 2022-07-29
lastmod: 2026-07-23
canonical_url: https://www.tomtunguz.com/average-expected-arr-decline-2022/
author: "Tomasz Tunguz"
---

[AWS announced earnings earlier today](https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2022/Amazon.com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results-fe1df2b70/) and reported 33% growth. That concludes this quarter's IaaS earnings scorecard reports & provides us a complete picture of the [infrastructure buyer's index](https://tomtunguz.com/the-index-of-software-buyers/). 

![image](https://res.cloudinary.com/dzawgnnlr/image/upload/gvgy2eovs1kgtvqrm9mt.png)

AWS's growth rate is the slowest of the three largest public infrastructure clouds. With about 39% market share, AWS reigns supreme as the largest provider. Larger businesses face more daunting challenges sustaining higher growth rates, so AWS numbers are expected. 

GCP reported 37% growth & Microsoft 40%. 


| Cloud | Q/Q Growth Rate Change| 
| ---   | ---: | 
| Azure | -13% | 
| GCP | -31% | 
| AWS | -18% |


All three businesses reported a decline in their growth rates. On average, these business units recorded a 21% decline in growth rate. 

Earlier this year, founders estimated a [30% ARR drop in their businesses](https://tomtunguz.com/2022-market-survey-results/).  Results from these clouds suggest the market isn't as soft as the 30% estimate - at least not yet. 

The 21% decline should provide founders an input into their forecasts for the remaining two quarters of 2022, especially infrastructure startups. 

Anticipate at least a 21% decline in growth rate for your base plan.