---
title: "Make Hay When the Sun Shines : Liquidity in Startup Exits"
description: "Analyze startup exit volatility: 82% chance of 77%+ value swings yearly. Key insights on timing liquidity events in venture capital markets, from web3 to SaaS."
categories: ["data analysis","exits"]
keywords: ["Theory Ventures","venture capital","startup exits","liquidity events","market volatility","SaaS","web3","investment timing","Tomasz Tunguz"]
ai_summary: "Explore the volatility of startup liquidity events and the importance of timing in venture capital markets."
date: 2024-01-07
lastmod: 2026-07-23
canonical_url: https://www.tomtunguz.com/liquidity-exit-markets/
author: "Tomasz Tunguz"
---

Companies aren't bought. They're sold.

Hang around startups & venture capital long enough, & you'll hear this aphorism. It means it's much easier to sell a company when there's plenty of demand.

In any given year, there's an 82% chance the value of startup liquidity will change by more than 77% - both up & down.

Aside from certain crypto tokens, it's hard to find a less reliable market than the VC exit market.

![image](https://res.cloudinary.com/dzawgnnlr/image/upload/uqjh6kdeuvmnamtdfr0c.png)

In 2021, the sun shone brilliantly. 2023 marked the worst year in 14 - since the Global Financial Crisis.

![image](https://res.cloudinary.com/dzawgnnlr/image/upload/jq9ji9iyg5afdzyxgiul.png)

Here's the volatility visualized across web3, consumer, & software startups.

In the last few years, we've seen markets with deep liquidity. Just as quickly, it's volatized - poof. It's a reminder to [make hay when the sun shines.](https://www.collinsdictionary.com/us/dictionary/english/make-hay-make-hay-while-the-sun-shines#:~:text=Definition%20of%20'make%20hay%2Fmake%20hay%20while%20the%20sun%20shines'&text=If%20you%20say%20that%20someone,make%20hay%20while%20we%20could.)