Scoring 2025's Predictions

Every year I make a list of predictions & score the previous year’s. You can find my 10 Predictions for 2026 here. 2025 was a good year : I scored 7.85 out of 10.

1. The IPO market rips.

Company Sector Market Cap, $b vs Last Private Round
CoreWeave AI Infrastructure 40.5 2.1x
Circle Stablecoin/Fintech 20.3 2.2x
Figma Design Software 18.85 0.9x
Chime Digital Banking 11.6 0.5x
Hinge Health Health Tech 3.8 0.6x

Score : 0.6.

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Scoring 2025's Predictions

Every year I make a list of predictions & score the previous year’s. You can find my 10 Predictions for 2026 here. 2025 was a good year : I scored 7.85 out of 10.

1. The IPO market rips.

Company Sector Market Cap, $b vs Last Private Round
CoreWeave AI Infrastructure 40.5 2.1x
Circle Stablecoin/Fintech 20.3 2.2x
Figma Design Software 18.85 0.9x
Chime Digital Banking 11.6 0.5x
Hinge Health Health Tech 3.8 0.6x

Score : 0.6.

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12 Predictions for 2026

Every year I make a list of predictions & score last year’s predictions. 2025 was a good year : I scored 7.85 out of 10. I will release the scoring tomorrow. For today, here are my predictions for 2026 :

1. Businesses pay more for AI agents than people for the first time.

This has already happened with consumers. Waymo rides cost 31% more than Uber on average, yet demand keeps growing. 1 Riders prefer the safety & reliability of autonomous vehicles. For rote business tasks, agents will command a similar premium as companies factor in onboarding, recruiting, training, & management costs.

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