I remember that financing round, & I remember having the same concern, & making the same mistake. Living in the valley & driving on 101, the billboards & logo-adorned headquarters of successful companies provide a daily infusion of all the mistakes in I've made in guessing how a company or a market might evolve. Years later, I listened as [Bill Gurley shared his thoughts about market size](https://abovethecrowd.com/2014/07/11/how-to-miss-by-a-mile-an-alternative-look-at-ubers-potential-market-size/). He asked himself a question : whether the startup was increasing, decreasing, or maintaining the market size? (I can't seem to find the link - but I have it in my notes!) I added that question to my diligence list when meeting startups. Now much later, having seen many companies create categories or reinvigorate aging ones, the question I ask myself has evolved. It's not as the market size large enough? Instead, it the question is : do we believe this company can create the market? Market size is the output of all the players marketing, selling, building. Their efforts alter, distort, & juice the supply/demand curves of macroeconomics. It's not a given - not an output or a steady-state CAGR. Often it's the startups that engender the demand, change the market dynamics, & make markets massive by taking risks with products. When done right, these founders create category-defining businesses like Shopify (now worth $90b)!Good supercut about why Shopify worked https://t.co/pw92KutpEn
— tobi lutke (@tobi) April 14, 2024