AI at Discount
Anthropic trades at 17x EV/NTM on 165% growth, a 65% discount to Palantir. Capital intensity, profitability uncertainty & growth volatility explain the gap.
Anthropic trades at 17x EV/NTM on 165% growth, a 65% discount to Palantir. Capital intensity, profitability uncertainty & growth volatility explain the gap.
Ad-supported AI is viable. A 4x B200 cluster breaks even with one search ad every 40 minutes or one content ad every 3 minutes. For heavier workloads, $10/month plus 8 ads per day covers a side project.
Google Cloud shocked the street with 63% growth in Q1 2026. Amazon, Google & Microsoft reported earnings with combined quarterly capex hitting $112B while cloud growth diverged dramatically.
GPU spot market data from Ornn shows B200 rental prices spiking from $2.31 to $4.95 per hour since early March. The spread over H200 has doubled & the timing aligns with frontier model releases.
GPU rental prices surged 48% in 60 days. The AI compute shortage will force startups to compete not on speed of iteration, but on access to infrastructure.
The AI infrastructure shortage isn't chips anymore — it's power, data centers & memory. What happens when demand exceeds supply through 2028?
The most capable AI models now spend their cycles orchestrating other tools. Specialization creates startup opportunity : build the specialists the executives call first.
Three strategic acquisitions in nine months signal the fusion of the modern data stack with AI. Snowflake, ClickHouse, & Datadog are racing to own AI observability.
Gemini 3's release and Nvidia's earnings confirm that AI scaling laws are accelerating. Pre-training gains combined with massive infrastructure buildouts signal a new era of model performance.
AI infrastructure spending hits $500B in 2024, ranking as the sixth-largest investment in US history. Projected to reach $983B by 2030, surpassing the New Deal but falling short of the railroad era's 6% of GDP peak.